Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Could the S&P500 tumble while Gold hold it's ground?

Could the S&P500 tumble while Gold hold it's ground? Sure, why not? Even though the Gold lost it's safe-haven status months ago and is acting more like a risk-on - risk-off asset, together with equities, it can still diverge and have it's own pace. In times of centralized easing from the most major central banks printing money like crazy, the only alternative to the fiat (paper money) is the precious yellow metal.
Despite the yesterday's sharp 1% sell-off in the equities market S&P500, the Gold futures remained stable and above the upper kumo boundary which acts as support around 1760 forced by the 50day SMA. In the short-to-medium term my view about the Gold is to remain locked in a range between 1790 and 1750 patiently waiting for the S&P500's correction to finish so that it can continue it's way north. Only a drop below 1750 will change my view. I still remain bullish the Gold Futures market so my strategy will be to go long at 1750 with tight stop loss about 5-10 points (1745-1740) targeting 1790 with one eye and the other looking above 1800.
However, as we can see from the chart below, the bull trend is quite matured and there are bearish signs I have marked on the chart with circles: RSI divergence, broken trendline support turned resistance and the 50day SMA is starting to flatten, so I don't rule out the possibility for a drop towards 1700 to test the 200day SMA for support.
Now take a look at the 2nd chart - I have marked with numbers 1 2 3 4 the spots where the price touches the trendline and bounces up - they are almost at the exact same distance from each other with the final 4th one marking a break of the ascending trendline and entering into consolidation/range. Take note that all the rallies from points 1, 2 and 3 are the exact same length - around 50 points. I have marked them with vertical yellow lines and the final 4th line failed to materialize into rally.
Now you understand why the Gold Futures market was my favorite instrument the last 1 month to trade - perfectly clear and precise to the pip setups. However, easy part is over and until this consolidation is over and the 1750-1790 levels are broken I will stay aside awaiting for opportunity to emerge.

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