Wednesday, November 2, 2016

US stock market S&P500 on the brink of massive crash?

I don't follow the US stock market closely anymore, but I have to admit that it caught my attention recently, as I see the signs of an impending crash coming and I think it's gonna be of massive proportions, similar to 07-08. Here I am going to present to you the monthly and the weekly chart with my projections for the future price levels, followed by a brief explanation. For every market to make such a dramatic turn of events, such as a 30+% crash that I am expecting, there must be 2 things present: first, the market must be matured enough, i.e. it must have climbed substantially for extended periods of time and the majority of the market participants must be complacent and not expecting any major downside moves, and second, and most importantly, there must be a catalyst to spark the sell off, and what bigger catalyst now than the US elections? So here follows my charts that I prepared for you.

S&P500 monthly chart (MN):

Explanation: blue line is 50MA, orange cloud is Ichimoku Kinko Hyo; both provide support in a bull market and show the direction of a trend. As you may notice, the market climbed substantially away of both and even though the direction of the trend remains fairly bullish, I see room for downside correction to test the roughly 1800 support levels. Where it goes from there time will tell, it all depends on market participants' perception, when, and if, we get there.

S&P500 weekly chart (W1):




I am more aggressive in my projection on the weekly chart; I see a test of 1800 support, a weak bounce and then a more massive sell off towards 1300s. I think that the 1800 level is too tempting for way too many participants to put their stops right below it, and I know from experience that Mr. Market loves to hurt those, I think that a slight drop below this support would trigger a more massive sell off. Whether is gonna be the case is early to tell, we'll wait and see. I'll cover a few individual stocks of interest, that I follow closely recently on my next post.

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